TOTAL VOLUME:
$71.3b
24H VOL:
$795,086,098
24H TRANSACTIONS:
683,469,929
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,943,078,483
638,610
Markets across
13,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,236
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
48%
VS.
Kalshi:
52%
Intro
This event group tracks the FIFA World Cup match between Tunisia and Japan scheduled for June 21, 2026, aggregating spread, over/under, both-teams-to-score, and player assist markets. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for Japan favored at the spread of -1.5 stands at 100.0%. Resolution will be determined by official FIFA records via fifa.com/fifaplus. Watch for the match kickoff on June 21, 2026, as this date marks both the event window and the point at which all market outcomes will be settled according to the final result.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Scope divergence on time period inclusion. Polymarket markets resolve on 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, while Kalshi player assist markets include the entire game including extra time periods.Hero Tip:
Monitor whether the match requires extra time. If it does, Polymarket match outcome markets will settle on the 90+stoppage score, but Kalshi player assist markets will continue counting through extra time. This creates a potential arbitrage or hedging opportunity if extra time is likely.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
All match outcome, spread, and total markets resolve based on official final score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only. Extra time and penalty shootouts are explicitly excluded. Primary resolution source is fifa.com official statistics, with credible reporting consensus as fallback if official stats not published within 2 hours. Cancellation without makeup resolves 50-50.Kalshi:
Player assist markets (Kubo, Ueda, Mejbri) resolve based on performance during the entire game including regulation, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. No explicit cancellation clause provided in source data. Scope explicitly includes all extra time.
Polymarket
More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 21 at 12:00 AM ET.
Kalshi
Each market evaluates assist performance by designated players during the complete Tunisia vs Japan FIFA World Cup match on June 21, 2026, encompassing regulation time, stoppage time, and any extra time periods. Hannibal Mejbri, Ayase Ueda, and Takefusa Kubo each have a market resolving Yes if they record at least one assist. Additionally, Takefusa Kubo has a separate market requiring at least two assists to resolve Yes. An assist is credited when a player's pass directly leads to a goal scored by a teammate. If a player is listed as active but does not enter the game, their market settles at the last fair market price established before kickoff. Once a player enters the game, all outcomes settle based on the actual assists recorded during play. Assists are counted across all game phases including regulation, stoppage time, and any overtime periods that may be played.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on real-money contracts where traders directly set prices through supply and demand, often reflecting sharper, less-biased estimates than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks build in margins and manage liability, whereas prediction markets reward accurate forecasting with direct payouts. This market's odds may diverge from major sportsbooks because prediction traders update continuously and face no house edge, making them particularly responsive to breaking news, injury reports, or lineup changes closer to kickoff.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, contract structures, and liquidity depths. Polymarket's binary and spread contracts appeal to directional bettors, while Kalshi's player-prop focus draws those seeking granular performance exposure. Funding levels, order-book depth, and settlement rule clarity also vary between venues. Smaller liquidity pools on one platform can amplify price swings, and different user bases may weight the same information differently, creating temporary mispricings that savvy traders exploit.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the Tunisia versus Japan match concludes and the result is verified against credible public sources. The specific outcome—whether spread, moneyline, or player performance—depends on which contract you hold. Each platform confirms the final score and any relevant statistics through independent verification, ensuring all positions settle fairly and transparently based on what actually occurred on the pitch.
Team news—injuries to key players, lineup announcements, or tactical shifts—typically triggers sharp repricing across both platforms. Recent form, head-to-head history, and weather conditions closer to kickoff also influence trader sentiment. International match dynamics, such as qualification stakes or rest patterns, can shift odds significantly. Real-time updates during warm-ups and early match action often spark volatility as traders react to early possession, fouls, or scoring chances, making this market most active in the final hours before and during the fixture.
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