TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Thompson vs Radtke?

Total volume:
$984
Volume 24h:
$418N/A
Liquidity:
$934
213%
Open interest:
$914
68%

Stephen Thompson

 - Kalshi

Stephen Thompson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 15, 2026

Time left: 11d:23h:30m

Stephen Thompson wins

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 55¢ buys you 182 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $182 | Net Profit: $82 Multiplier: 1.82x | ROI: 82% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stephen Thompson

Trade
56%
Yes 55¢No 48¢
3¢
N/A
$182
361%
N/A
$182
1w 4d 23h
Active
kalshi

Charles Radtke

Trade
50%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
N/A
$802
52%
N/A
$732
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke

Trade
54%
6%
Yes 57¢No 50¢
7¢
$759
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Thompson to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Radtke to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Thompson in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Thompson in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Thompson in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Radtke in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Radtke in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Radtke in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
polymarket

Decision or Draw

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 23h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

This group covers various markets related to the UFC 334 welterweight fight between Stephen Thompson and Charles Radtke. Markets include who will win, how they will win (KO, submission, decision), whether the fight will go the distance, and round-specific outcomes. The event is scheduled for November 14, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets define 'win' more narrowly than Polymarket, potentially creating discrepancies in resolution.Hero tip: Consider the broader definition of 'win' on Polymarket, which encompasses all fight-ending outcomes. Kalshi's markets require a clear-cut win, excluding draws or disqualifications.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if the fighter is officially declared the winner by any method (KO, TKO, Submission, Decision). "This market will resolve to "Stephen Thompson" if Stephen Thompson is officially declared the winner..."
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' only if the fighter wins the fight. "If Stephen Thompson wins the Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke professional MMA fight... then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Stephen Thompson" if Stephen Thompson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Charles Radtke at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Charles Radtke" if Charles Radtke is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026. If Thompson wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Radtke wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or reversals do not impact resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. The event explicitly states it is not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, or the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the UFC 334 welterweight prelims. Currently, the consensus view across these platforms indicates a roughly even chance for either fighter to win, with a combined volume of $984. This allows for a comprehensive view of market sentiment, as traders on both venues express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. The dashboard tracks the probabilities and volume traded, offering insights into where the crowd believes the value lies in these matchups. This is a dynamic representation of collective forecasting.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd effect, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets allow traders to freely express their beliefs, leading to prices driven by supply and demand. This market’s probabilities can be compared to sportsbook odds to identify potential discrepancies and opportunities for informed decision-making. However, it’s important to remember that both have their strengths and weaknesses, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading interfaces, and fee structures, all of which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform can vary significantly, impacting how quickly information is incorporated into the odds. Currently, Polymarket currently favors UFC 334: Stephen Thompson vs. Charles Radtke (Welterweight, Prelims) at 53.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Stephen Thompson wins at 56.0%. These differences highlight the independent nature of each market and the diverse perspectives of their traders.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be based on the official result declared by the UFC following the conclusion of the welterweight prelims fight between Stephen Thompson and Charles Radtke. The platform will verify the outcome against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and finalize the settlement of this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in weight class, or even significant shifts in public perception could cause the odds to move. Unexpected announcements about fighter strategy or training could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, major upsets in other UFC fights leading up to this event might affect overall confidence in certain fighting styles, impacting the probabilities reflected in this market.