TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 334: Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Chiasson vs Mesquita?

Total volume:
$230
Volume 24h:
$88N/A
Liquidity:
$369
10%
Open interest:
$124
89%

Beatriz Mesquita

 - Kalshi

Beatriz Mesquita - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 14, 2026

Time left: 12d:03h:27m

Beatriz Mesquita wins

57%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 57% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% APY not meaningful 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Beatriz Mesquita

Trade
57%
14%
Yes 71¢No 38¢
9¢
N/A
$140
23%
N/A
$74
1w 5d 3h
Active
kalshi

Macy Chiasson

Trade
39%
2%
Yes 37¢No 72¢
9¢
N/A
$90
218%
N/A
$50
1w 5d 3h
Active
polymarket

Macy Chiasson vs. Bia Mesquita

Trade
31%
4%
Yes 50¢No 88¢
38¢
$194
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Chiasson to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Mesquita to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Chiasson in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Chiasson in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Chiasson in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Mesquita in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Mesquita in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Mesquita in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
polymarket

Decision or Draw

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 4h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group covers the UFC 334 women's bantamweight fight between Macy Chiasson and Bia Mesquita. Multiple markets are available, including who will win the fight, how the fight will end (KO, submission, decision), and round-based outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Slight divergence in the scope of the winner markets. Polymarket allows for a 50-50 resolution on a draw/no contest, while Kalshi requires a definitive win.Hero tip: Focus on markets like 'Fight to Go the Distance' or 'Will the fight be won by KO/TKO' to avoid the winner-specific divergence.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to a specific fighter if they are officially declared the winner, or 50-50 on a draw/no contest. "This market will resolve to 'Macy Chiasson' if Macy Chiasson is officially declared the winner..."
  • Kalshi: Resolves only if the specified fighter wins. "If Macy Chiasson wins...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Macy Chiasson" if Macy Chiasson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bia Mesquita at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bia Mesquita" if Bia Mesquita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The event involves two parallel markets resolving based on the outcome of the Macy Chiasson vs. Beatriz Mesquita professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026. If Chiasson wins, her market resolves to Yes; if Mesquita wins, hers resolves to Yes. Should the fight end in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50, representing a split payout. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or reversals are disregarded. If the fight is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final official result. Cancellations or failures to start within 48 hours result in both markets resolving to a fair price. These markets are independently operated and do not imply endorsement by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with various outcomes for the Macy Chiasson versus Bia Mesquita fight at UFC 334. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $230, with $88 traded in the last 24 hours. The dashboard provides a consensus view of predictions, reflecting how traders are pricing the likelihood of each fighter winning. As of now, Polymarket currently favors Fight to Go the Distance? at 50.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Beatriz Mesquita wins at 57.0%.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many individuals. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook's initial assessment. It's possible to find value by comparing the implied probabilities from both sources and identifying potential mispricings in either this market or at sportsbooks.

Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi for the UFC 334 fight market can stem from several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying expertise and risk tolerance regarding MMA events. Trading volume also plays a role; a larger volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on Polymarket and Kalshi can influence trading behavior and, consequently, the odds. These factors contribute to the observed discrepancies in how traders assess the probabilities of different outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the UFC regarding the Macy Chiasson versus Bia Mesquita fight. The official result will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct, and payouts will be distributed accordingly. The event's official result is the sole determinant of the market’s outcome.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves on Nov 15, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in weight class, or alterations to the fight card would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Public statements from the fighters or their coaches, particularly concerning strategy or physical condition, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected betting trends outside of Polymarket and Kalshi might also be reflected in the market. Finally, any updates regarding the fighters' training camps or recent performances will be closely monitored by traders, potentially leading to price movements.