TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC 334: Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan (Flyweight, Main Card)
🌟New
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Luis Gurule vs. Bilal Hasan?

Total volume:
$2,565
Volume 24h:
$2,163N/A
Liquidity:
$1,317
105%
Open interest:
$2,426
510%
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This group covers various markets related to the UFC 334 flyweight fight between Luis Gurule and Bilal Hasan. Markets include who will win, how they will win (KO, submission, decision), whether the fight will go the distance, and round-based outcomes. These markets are designed to allow prediction on different aspects of the fight's progression and result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines resolution solely on the winning fighter, while Polymarket provides detailed win condition definitions and a 50-50 resolution for draws/no contests.Hero tip: Prioritize the overall winner market on Kalshi. Be cautious when trading Polymarket's more specific markets (e.g., win by KO/submission) as their resolution criteria are more nuanced.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official UFC information, specifying win conditions and a 50-50 resolution for draws/no contests. "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
  • Kalshi: Resolves simply based on which fighter is officially declared the winner. "If Bilal Hasan wins the Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Nov 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner of the fight against Bilal Hasan at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Bilal Hasan" if Bilal Hasan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026. If Bilal Hasan wins, his market resolves to Yes, and Luis Gurule’s market resolves to No, and vice versa if Luis Gurule wins. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50 each. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or removals do not affect resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. The event explicitly states it is not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), and any references to the UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities associated with various outcomes of the Gurule vs. Hasan fight. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $2,565, with $1,948 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will the fight end before Round 2? at 50, while Kalshi leans toward Bilal Hasan wins at n/a. This allows for a consensus view of expectations for the fight, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on each platform. The dashboard provides a single location to monitor how predictions evolve as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while prediction markets are driven by the collective opinions of traders who are incentivized to be accurate. This can lead to prediction markets being more efficient at incorporating diverse information and reflecting the true probabilities of events. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and may offer different value depending on individual risk tolerance and market conditions. This market provides an alternative perspective on the likely outcome.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to a number of factors, including differences in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket may attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to varying interpretations of the available information. Additionally, the liquidity and depth of each market can influence price discovery. Even with the same underlying event, the dynamics of each platform can result in differing probabilities being reflected in the prices. This market’s prices represent the unique consensus of each platform’s traders.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official result of the Gurule vs. Hasan fight, as determined by the UFC, will be used to settle this market. This includes whether the fight ends by knockout, submission, decision, or other means. The resolution will be based on the official record and any subsequent rulings from the relevant athletic commission.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 15, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to either Luis Gurule or Bilal Hasan would likely cause substantial shifts in probabilities. Updates on their training camps, weight cuts, or tactical approaches could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, public analysis from MMA experts, changes in betting lines at traditional sportsbooks, and even social media discussions could all contribute to price movements. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the fighters' relative strengths and weaknesses has the potential to move this market.