TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa
- Polymarket
Jared Gordon vs. Melquizael Costa - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 14, 2026
Time left: 12d:05h:23m
$
This market will resolve to "Jared Gordon" if Jared Gordon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melquizael Costa at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Melquizael Costa" if Melquizael Costa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
This market will resolve to "Jared Gordon" if Jared Gordon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melquizael Costa at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Melquizael Costa" if Melquizael Costa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook is undervaluing a particular outcome, the prediction market odds will likely move in the opposite direction. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly as the event approaches and more information surfaces, potentially revealing insights not yet factored into sportsbook lines.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price of each share adjusts to reflect the collective prediction. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a 'yes' share (e.g., Jared Gordon winning) indicates the probability of that outcome, while the price of a 'no' share represents the probability of the alternative. The market’s efficiency comes from traders actively seeking to profit from perceived mispricings, driving the odds towards a fair value.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the UFC for the UFC 334 lightweight bout. The winner of the fight, as determined by the official scorecard or stoppage, will dictate the settlement of this market. Any potential disputes or challenges to the official result will be considered according to Polymarket’s market rules.
Several factors could influence the odds of this market. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference dynamics can all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about fighter weight classes or potential rule changes could also have a significant impact. Performance in previous fights, analysis from MMA experts, and even public polls could all contribute to changes in the market as traders adjust their predictions leading up to the event on November 15, 2026.