TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 334: Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)
🌟New
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Drew Dober vs Chris Duncan?

Total volume:
$523
Volume 24h:
$519N/A
Liquidity:
$774
46%
Open interest:
$495
11,848%

Chris Duncan

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 15, 2026

Time left: 12d:09h:22m

Chris Duncan wins

58%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 58¢ buys you 172 shares | Odds: 58% Total Payout: $172 | Net Profit: $72 Multiplier: 1.72x | ROI: 72% APY not meaningful 12 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Chris Duncan

Trade
58%
31%
Yes 58¢No 46¢
4¢
N/A
$121
5,726%
N/A
$121
1w 5d 9h
Active
polymarket

Duncan to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
58%
Yes 58¢No 46¢
Avg: 49¢Max: 94¢
kalshi

Drew Dober

Trade
46%
29%
Yes 46¢No 56¢
2¢
N/A
$403
19,360%
N/A
$374
1w 5d 9h
Active
polymarket

Dober to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
46%
Yes 46¢No 56¢
Avg: 48¢Max: 94¢
polymarket

Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan

Trade
54%
Yes 68¢No 61¢
29¢
$600
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Dober in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Dober in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Dober in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Duncan in Round 1

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Duncan in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Duncan in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
polymarket

Decision or Draw

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 5d 8h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group covers various markets related to the UFC 334 lightweight fight between Drew Dober and Chris Duncan. Markets include who will win, how they will win (KO, TKO, Submission, Decision), the duration of the fight (rounds), and round-specific win conditions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution criteria are less specific than Polymarket's, particularly regarding the method of victory and round-specific outcomes.Hero tip: Focus on the overall winner market on Kalshi, and be cautious of round-specific or method-of-victory markets due to Polymarket's more detailed resolution criteria.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on official UFC information, specifying win conditions (KO, TKO, Submission, Decision) and round-specific outcomes. Includes a '50-50' resolution for draws, No Contests, cancellations, or postponements beyond November 28, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Resolves simply based on who wins the fight. No specification of win method or round. Only states that if Drew Dober or Chris Duncan wins, the market resolves to 'Yes'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Drew Dober" if Drew Dober is officially declared the winner of the fight against Chris Duncan at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Chris Duncan" if Chris Duncan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026. If Dober wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Duncan wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or reversals do not affect resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. The event explicitly states it is not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), and any references to the UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the Dober vs. Duncan fight. Currently, the aggregated view shows a consensus expectation, with a total volume of $523 across both platforms. This allows traders to see where the 'wisdom of the crowd' currently stands on who will win this lightweight prelim bout. The dashboard provides a cross-platform view, combining data from both venues to offer a more comprehensive picture than looking at either Polymarket or Kalshi in isolation. It's a useful tool for anyone interested in understanding the predicted outcome of this fight.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to ensure profit, factoring in a 'vig' or commission. Prediction markets, however, are driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs, leading to odds that can be more reflective of true probabilities. This market's odds may also move faster than sportsbook odds, reacting quickly to new information or shifts in sentiment. While sportsbooks are influenced by professional oddsmakers, this market is influenced by a diverse group of participants, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely outcome of the Dober vs. Duncan fight.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has a different user base with varying levels of expertise and access to information about the Dober vs. Duncan fight. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, the specific rules and incentives on each platform can influence trading behavior. For example, Polymarket currently favors UFC 334: Drew Dober vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims) at 53.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Chris Duncan wins at 58.0%, illustrating how differing opinions manifest as price discrepancies.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Dober vs. Duncan fight as declared by the UFC. The platform will verify the result against established sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions in this market. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available information and does not involve any subjective judgment calls.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before Nov 15, 2026. Any news regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight weigh-in results could shift the perceived probabilities. Public statements from the fighters or their coaches, as well as analysis from MMA experts, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected betting patterns in traditional sportsbooks might also be interpreted as new information by prediction market participants. Ultimately, any development that alters the assessment of each fighter’s chances of winning will likely cause movement in this market.