TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 334: Adrian Yañez vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Early Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Yañez vs Diaz?

Total volume:
$262
Volume 24h:
$198N/A
Liquidity:
$13,777
22%
Open interest:
$178
705%

Adrian Yanez

 - Kalshi

Adrian Yanez - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 14, 2026

Time left: 11d:21h:19m

Adrian Yanez wins

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 55¢ buys you 182 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $182 | Net Profit: $82 Multiplier: 1.82x | ROI: 82% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Adrian Yanez

Trade
56%
11%
Yes 55¢No 50¢
5¢
N/A
$174
374%
N/A
$117
1w 4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Adrian Yañez vs. Juan Diaz

Trade
50%
Yes 51¢No 51¢
2¢
$10,837
$27
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
kalshi

Juan Diaz

Trade
45%
Yes 52¢No 55¢
7¢
N/A
$61
0%
N/A
$61
1w 4d 21h
Active
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Yañez to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Diaz to win by KO/TKO?

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 84¢No 85¢
69¢
$873
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 84¢No 85¢
69¢
$853
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 84¢No 85¢
69¢
$853
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 94¢No 97¢
91¢
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Yañez in Round 1

Trade
49%
1%
Yes 94¢No 97¢
91¢
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Yañez in Round 2

Trade
51%
1%
Yes 97¢No 95¢
92¢
$46
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Yañez in Round 3

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Diaz in Round 1

Trade
52%
2%
Yes 97¢No 94¢
91¢
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Diaz in Round 2

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Diaz in Round 3

Trade
49%
2%
Yes 94¢No 97¢
91¢
$48
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
polymarket

Decision or Draw

Trade
50%
Yes 97¢No 97¢
94¢
$4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 4d 22h
Active
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group covers the UFC 334 bantamweight fight between Adrian Yañez and Juan Diaz. Markets include questions about the fight's winner, method of victory, duration, and round-specific outcomes.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi only considers a win by either fighter, while Polymarket includes draws and no contests as resolution options.Hero tip: Be aware that a draw or fight cancellation will resolve the Polymarket market to '50-50' but will likely result in a clear resolution on Kalshi (either Yañez or Diaz wins).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the official UFC winner, including draws and no contests. If the fight is canceled or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, it resolves to '50-50'.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either Adrian Yañez or Juan Diaz wins the fight. No mention of draws, no contests, or postponements.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Adrian Yañez" if Adrian Yañez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Juan Diaz at UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, scheduled for November 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Juan Diaz" if Juan Diaz is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official result of the Adrian Yanez vs Juan Diaz professional MMA fight scheduled for November 14, 2026. If Yanez wins, his market resolves to Yes, and Diaz’s resolves to No. Conversely, if Diaz wins, his market resolves to Yes, and Yanez’s resolves to No. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50, representing a split payout. Post-expiration result changes, disqualifications, or reversals do not affect resolution. If the fight is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, both markets resolve to a fair price. These contracts are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), and any references to the UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various outcomes for the Yañez vs. Diaz fight. Currently, the aggregated view shows a consensus forming around the potential for Adrian Yañez to win by KO or TKO, although opinions differ between the two platforms. Total volume across both venues is $262, with $225 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to see how the crowd's wisdom is evolving as new information becomes available and to compare predictions against the odds offered by traditional sportsbooks.

Prediction market odds, such as those seen on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many individuals, creating a more accurate forecast of the event's true probability. This market, concerning the Yañez vs. Diaz fight, may show discrepancies with sportsbook lines due to differing information sources or varying levels of expertise among participants. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk tolerance and information access. Polymarket currently favors Adrian Yañez winning by KO or TKO at 51.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Juan Diaz winning at 56.0%. Furthermore, differing trading fees, market-making activity, and even the time of day can influence price discrepancies. These variations present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders exploit price differences across platforms.

This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Yañez vs. Diaz fight, as declared by the UFC. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions in this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 15, 2026. News regarding fighter injuries, changes in training regimens, or even pre-fight press conference statements could all shift probabilities. Unexpected betting activity on traditional sportsbooks could also influence trading on Polymarket and Kalshi. Finally, any updates on the fighters' physical condition or tactical approaches leading up to the bout will likely cause fluctuations in the market as traders adjust their assessments of the likely outcome of the Yañez vs. Diaz fight.