TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
UFC 333: Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Early Prelims)
polymarket
predict
kalshi

What is the result of Noah Gugnon vs Kody Steele?

Volume:
$704,767

Kody Steele

 - Kalshi

Kody Steele - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 10:40 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kody Steele

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$287,163
N/A
N/A
$241,579
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Steele to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
65%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$231
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Steele in Round 1

View
100%
75%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$241,338
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Noah Gugnon vs. Kody Steele

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$80
$579
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Noah Gugnon

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$171,905
N/A
N/A
$153,178
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,082
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gugnon to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$101
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Gugnon in Round 1

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gugnon in Round 2

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gugnon in Round 3

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Steele in Round 2

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Steele in Round 3

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 333 lightweight fight between Noah Gugnon and Kody Steele ends before Round 3. Currently, the consensus probability that the fight will end before Round 3 is 100.0%. This prediction is an aggregation of views from Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, and will be resolved based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for October 24, 2026, as the outcome will determine resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves 'Yes' for either fighter winning, while Polymarket specifies the winner by name. This creates a SKU risk where a 'Yes' on Kalshi doesn't directly translate to a specific fighter winning.Hero tip: Focus on the specific outcome you're predicting and understand how each platform defines a winning resolution. Consider the implications of a draw or no contest on Kalshi, where it resolves to 'Yes' for both outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the specific fighter ('Noah Gugnon' or 'Kody Steele') if they win, or '50-50' for a draw, no contest, cancellation, or postponement beyond November 7, 2026.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins. Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins. Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Noah Gugnon" if Noah Gugnon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kody Steele at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Kody Steele" if Kody Steele is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for the respective fighter if they win the bout as scheduled on October 24, 2026. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Any changes to the official result after the contract expires, such as disqualifications or reversals, will not impact resolution. A postponement within 48 hours of the original start time keeps the market open, resolving based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, both markets resolve to a fair price.

Predict

This market will resolve to "Noah Gugnon" if Noah Gugnon is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kody Steele at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Kody Steele" if Kody Steele is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public opinion diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may incorporate factors like team news and injuries, this market can quickly adjust to new information and evolving sentiment surrounding the Gugnon vs. Steele fight.