TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 333: Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Krylov vs Yakhyaev?

Volume:
$1,325,505

Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?

 - Polymarket

Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 3:48 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Yakhyaev to win by KO/TKO?

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,468
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,519
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Yakhyaev in Round 1

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,001
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
37%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$444,310
N/A
N/A
$357,343
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Nikita Krylov vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$177,341
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nikita Krylov

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$649,004
N/A
N/A
$574,939
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yakhyaev in Round 2

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Krylov to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Krylov in Round 3

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Krylov in Round 1

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Krylov in Round 2

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yakhyaev in Round 3

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev winning by KO or TKO in his Light Heavyweight fight against Nikita Krylov at UFC 333. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on official information from https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, scheduled for resolution on October 25, 2026, to see if Yakhyaev can secure a KO or TKO victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes a '50-50' resolution path for non-decisive outcomes (No Contest, cancellation, postponement), while Kalshi only resolves based on a winner.Hero tip: Prioritize the core win/loss outcome, as Kalshi simplifies the resolution. Be aware of the potential for Polymarket markets to resolve to '50-50' even if a clear winner isn't declared due to fight circumstances.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winning fighter or '50-50' if the fight is a draw, No Contest, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026. Resolution source is official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if either fighter wins the fight. Does not explicitly address draws, No Contests, or cancellations.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Nikita Krylov" if Nikita Krylov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev" if Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official result of the Nikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev professional MMA fight scheduled for October 24, 2026. If Krylov wins, his market resolves to Yes; if Yakhyaev wins, his market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw or no contest, both markets resolve to $0.50. Any changes to the result, disqualifications, or removals after the contract expires do not impact resolution. If the fight is postponed but begins within 48 hours of the original start time, the market stays open and resolves based on the final result. If the fight is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours, both markets resolve to a fair price. These markets are not endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC, and any references to UFC are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd and the incentive structure. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a margin, while prediction markets allow participants to directly express their beliefs. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks may react more quickly to breaking news, such as an injury announcement, while prediction markets require traders to adjust their positions. The difference can also stem from varying levels of expertise among participants in each venue.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors, including differing user bases, trading volumes, and market-making activity. Polymarket might attract a different type of trader than Kalshi, leading to variations in opinion. Furthermore, the liquidity available on each platform influences price discovery; lower volume can result in greater price swings. The specific question formats offered on each platform can also contribute to discrepancies, as subtle differences in wording can impact how traders interpret the event. These factors create distinct market dynamics on each venue.