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UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan?

Volume:
$9,989,350

Petr Yan

 - Kalshi

Petr Yan - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 4:34 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Petr Yan

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,912,987
N/A
N/A
$2,667,584
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight to Go the Distance?

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,043
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 1.5 Rounds

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,278
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Rounds

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,254
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fight won by decision?

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Decision or Draw

View
100%
28%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Rounds

View
100%
18%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$59
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 0.5 Rounds

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Rounds

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Merab Dvalishvili

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,159,757
N/A
N/A
$2,722,580
Settled
No
polymarket

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,855,516
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yan to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,163
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by submission?

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 5?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fight won by KO/TKO?

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,395
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 2?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,125
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 3?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yan in Round 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dvalishvili in Round 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dvalishvili in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$74
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dvalishvili in Round 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Dvalishvili in Round 4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yan in Round 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ends before Round 4?

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 333 bantamweight fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan will go Over/Under 3.5 rounds. Currently, the aggregated probability of Over 3.5 Rounds is 100.0%. This consensus view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on the official results reported at https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight itself, as the outcome will be determined by the conclusion of the bout on or before the resolution date of 2026-10-25.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes a '50-50' resolution path for draws, No Contests, or postponements, while Kalshi only considers a win by either fighter.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi markets will resolve to 'No' if the fight ends in a draw or No Contest, while Polymarket will resolve to '50-50'. This difference impacts the implied probability and potential payout.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if either fighter wins, and '50-50' if the fight ends in a draw, No Contest, or is postponed beyond November 7, 2026. Resolution source is official UFC information.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if either fighter wins. No mention of draws, No Contests, or postponements. Resolution source is not explicitly stated, but implied to be official UFC results.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Petr Yan" if Petr Yan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Petr Yan wins the Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Merab Dvalishvili wins the Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Dvalishvili vs. Yan fight. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $9,989,350, with $7,786,770 traded in the last 24 hours. While Polymarket currently shows a strong consensus around Fight to Go the Distance?, Kalshi is leaning towards Petr Yan winning. This allows for a comprehensive view of where the crowd believes the most likely result lies, offering a consensus view not found on any single platform. This market provides a unique opportunity to track sentiment as the fight approaches.