TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita?

Volume:
$2,345,322
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Intro

This market tracks whether the UFC 333 featherweight fight between Aaron Pico and Losene Keita will be won by KO or TKO. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be based on official information from https://www.ufc.com/events. Keep an eye on the fight scheduled for October 24, 2026, as the result of this bout will determine the market’s outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket provides detailed resolution criteria including handling of draws, no contests, postponements, and cancellations, while Kalshi focuses solely on which fighter wins.Hero tip: Prioritize the core win/loss outcome, as Kalshi's market is less comprehensive. Be mindful of Polymarket's postponement cutoff date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on official UFC information. A postponement beyond November 7, 2026, or a No Contest results in a 50-50 resolution. "If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if a fighter wins. No explicit handling of draws, no contests, postponements, or cancellations beyond determining a winner. "If Aaron Pico wins the Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Kalshi

If Aaron Pico wins the Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Losene Keita wins the Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probabilities of various outcomes for the Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita fight. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $2,345,322, with $2,231,892 traded in the last 24 hours. The consensus view, while showing some divergence, indicates strong expectations for a quick finish. Polymarket currently favors a fight ending before Round 2, while Kalshi leans toward an Aaron Pico win. This allows users to see how the crowd is predicting the fight's progression and potential winner, providing a dynamic view of expectations.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of bettors, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets aggregate individual forecasts. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when significant information asymmetry exists or public sentiment strongly influences the outcome. This market, specifically, may show differences in implied probabilities compared to sportsbooks due to the unique insights captured by the prediction market participants.