TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:13 PM EST
Limitless
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, 13:00 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
This market resolves to "YES" if the listed club wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shootouts, in the match scheduled for October 4, 2026, 13:00 UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to "NO." If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed. If the match is not completed as scheduled for any reason (for example, if it is abandoned, canceled, or awarded), and an official final result is recognized by the governing body or event organizers, this market will resolve based on that result. If no official final result is recognized and no make-up match is scheduled, this market will resolve "NO." Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
On Limitless, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders can buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more people bet on a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. The platform uses a market-making algorithm to ensure liquidity and facilitate trading, allowing for dynamic price discovery as new information becomes available. The current implied probabilities are shaped by these trading activities.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Azerbaijan vs Lithuania match as reported by a recognized sporting authority. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine the winning outcome and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result, as this will be the basis for settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Azerbaijan or Lithuania could all significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-match commentary from analysts could also impact the perceived probabilities. Major upsets in other qualifying matches within the UEFA Nations League could also indirectly affect sentiment. Any developments that alter the perceived likelihood of either team winning will likely be reflected in the volume and price action of this market.