TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 2:51 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Roma will win its Serie A soccer match against Udinese. Currently, Kalshi gives Roma a 99.0% probability of winning, while Udinese is at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match as reported by official sources, specifically if Udinese wins the Udinese vs Roma professional Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Keep a close eye on the kickoff of the match on October 31, 2026, as that will begin the window for resolution.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Udinese vs Roma professional Serie A soccer match originally scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for the Udinese market occurs if Udinese wins in regulation time. Similarly, a 'Yes' for Roma occurs if Roma wins in regulation. The Tie market resolves to 'Yes' if the game ends level after regulation. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets resolve to a fair price. No outcomes consider extra time or penalty shootouts.
Generally, prediction markets like Kalshi tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly when it comes to forecasting the probability of events. This is because prediction market prices reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, incentivized to make accurate predictions. Sportsbooks, while employing sophisticated models, are still subject to biases and profit margins. However, it's common to see initial sportsbook lines move to align with the prices established on Kalshi as the event approaches and more information becomes available. It's a good practice to compare both to get a comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Udinese vs Roma match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand – if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they’ll buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective assessment.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Udinese vs Roma match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official result declared by the governing sports body. Traders who hold contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and based on publicly available, verifiable data, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Udinese or Roma would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected news about the managers or internal team dynamics could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in expectations, causing prices to adjust rapidly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving probabilities reflected in this market.