TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming Serie A soccer match between Udinese and Milan. It focuses on how many goals will separate the two teams at the end of regular time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios for the Udinese vs Milan Serie A match scheduled for October 25, 2026. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Udinese winning by more than 2.5 goals, Udinese winning by more than 1.5 goals, Milan winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Milan winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty phases. The markets operate independently, meaning each threshold resolves separately according to its specific condition. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook odds which are set by analysts. Sportsbooks may initially incorporate biases or react quickly to news, while this market allows a broader range of participants to weigh in. Over time, the prices on Kalshi tend to converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer. However, discrepancies can still arise due to differing market participants and information processing.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Udinese vs Milan match. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more traders believe Milan will cover the spread, the price will increase, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, providing a probabilistic forecast of the event’s outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Udinese vs Milan match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual spread achieved during the game, as determined by official match statistics. Traders holding contracts on the winning side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their stake. The precise details of the outcome will be publicly available following the match’s completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 26, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either Udinese or Milan would likely cause significant movement, as would any changes in team form or tactical approaches. Unexpected news regarding player suspensions or coaching changes could also impact the market. Additionally, major weather conditions affecting the match venue, or even significant shifts in public sentiment based on pre-match analysis, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.