TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 6:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the scoring performance of both teams in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on whether specific teams will exceed various point thresholds. The outcomes are determined by the official game results, with adjustments for postponements.
The markets resolve based on whether Oregon or UCLA exceeds specified point thresholds in their college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. For each market, if the designated team scores more than the stated point line, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, opportunities for arbitrage may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on Kalshi and a sportsbook. However, it’s important to note that sportsbooks and prediction markets have different costs and risk tolerances, which can contribute to these differences.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the UCLA and Oregon team totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific total occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, giving you an idea of the strength of conviction behind various outcomes. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of probabilities as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final team totals for both UCLA and Oregon, as officially recorded by the governing body of the game, will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will reflect the combined score of both teams, and contracts predicting a total that matches the actual combined score will pay out. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the market's resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either UCLA or Oregon would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected weather conditions could also impact expectations. Furthermore, the performance of both teams in games leading up to the event, and any public statements from analysts or insiders, could shift trader sentiment. Monitoring these signals and understanding their potential impact on team performance is crucial for informed trading in this market.