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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:23 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score more points in the final quarter of a college football game between UCLA and Oregon. It provides a way to speculate on the momentum and performance of each team specifically in the last quarter of play, excluding any overtime periods.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points in the fourth quarter of the UCLA vs Oregon college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026, excluding overtime. If Oregon scores more points in the fourth quarter, the 'Oregon' market resolves to Yes. If UCLA scores more points in the fourth quarter, the 'UCLA' market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points in the fourth quarter, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. For all markets, only points scored during the fourth quarter of regulation play are considered; overtime points are excluded. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated beliefs of individuals trading on Kalshi. If many traders believe UCLA is likely to win the 4th quarter, the price for that outcome will rise, potentially moving further away from the initial sportsbook line. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each outcome – UCLA winning, Oregon winning, or a tie – and the price fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price of a contract indicates the market’s implied probability of that outcome, and traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the event’s result.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the winner of the 4th quarter of the UCLA vs Oregon game will determine the winning contract. The platform will utilize official game results to determine the outcome, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution. Traders holding contracts for the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either UCLA or Oregon would likely cause price movement. Changes in the game’s overall momentum during the first three quarters could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected strategic decisions by the coaches, or even weather conditions if the game is outdoors, could also play a role. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could indicate a shift in expectations and move the prices accordingly.