TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 6:15 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment in a college football game between UCLA and Oregon. It evaluates whether one team will outperform the other by a certain margin of points during a designated quarter of play.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between UCLA and Oregon exclusively during the 3rd quarter of their game scheduled for October 10, 2026. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if Oregon or UCLA meets or exceeds the specified point spread threshold for that quarter, as defined in each individual market (e.g., winning by over 2.5, 3.5, up to 10.5 points). All markets exclusively consider points scored in the 3rd quarter; performance in other quarters is irrelevant. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original start time, the markets remain active and resolve according to the official result. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point spread threshold listed.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it might indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the third quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the UCLA vs Oregon 3rd quarter spread.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual point spread achieved in the third quarter of the UCLA vs Oregon game. The final score differential will be compared to the contract spreads offered on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. It’s important to monitor the game’s progress leading up to the end of the third quarter to understand how the market is likely to settle.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the UCLA or Oregon teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Additionally, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, and any shifts in public sentiment or betting trends, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals is crucial for anyone looking to trade positions.