TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 5:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance gap between UCLA and Oregon during a specific segment of their game. It focuses exclusively on the second quarter scoring, ignoring the rest of the match outcome. Bettors assess whether one team will dominate the other by a certain margin in that timeframe.
The event evaluates whether UCLA or Oregon achieves a specified point differential advantage during the second quarter of their college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Multiple markets exist with varying threshold point differences — from over 2.5 points up to over 10.5 points — for both possible outcomes (UCLA or Oregon winning the quarter). All markets exclusively consider points scored in the second quarter, disregarding any scoring from other quarters. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, the markets remain active and resolve based on the official final result of that quarter. Should the game fail to start within the 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point threshold market they chose.
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to balance their risk, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. It’s common to see prediction market prices move more quickly in response to new information than sportsbook odds, as traders react in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second quarter of the UCLA vs Oregon game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Specifically, the market will determine which side of the spread, if any, was correctly predicted by traders. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and will be publicly available following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the UCLA or Oregon teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the market. Finally, any late-breaking information about team strategies or coaching decisions could cause traders to reassess their probabilities and adjust their positions, leading to price movements in this market.