TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
UCLA wins by over 5.5 points
- Kalshi
UCLA wins by over 5.5 points - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 7, 2026
Time left: 04d:22h:50m
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This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the UCLA vs Minnesota college football game scheduled for November 7, 2026. For UCLA win markets, resolution occurs if UCLA wins by exceeding the specified point margin (e.g., over 27.5 points, over 24.5 points, etc.). For Minnesota win markets, resolution occurs if Minnesota wins by exceeding the specified point margin (e.g., over 1.5 points, over 2.5 points, etc.). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction markets and sportsbooks arrive at similar probabilities, but differences can emerge due to varying incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks aim to set lines that balance betting action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals expressing their true beliefs about the outcome, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches. Discrepancies can also arise from differing levels of public information and the speed at which each venue incorporates new data. It's common to see prediction markets react more quickly to impactful news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the UCLA vs Minnesota game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that specific spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly efficient and informative market.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the UCLA vs Minnesota game, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread that matches the actual result will settle at 100, while those predicting a different spread will settle at 0. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on the official game results.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or significant shifts in team performance would likely impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions or even public perception shifts based on media coverage could also play a role. Major upsets in other games involving these teams could indirectly affect confidence levels. As the game draws closer, any late-breaking news or analysis will be closely watched by traders, leading to potential price adjustments until the market resolves.