TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting whether Oklahoma State or UCF will have a significant point advantage by the end of the second quarter in their college football game. Outcomes vary based on the margin of victory for either team during that specific period.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Oklahoma State and UCF exclusively during the second quarter of play in the game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with varying margins required for resolution to 'Yes' depending on which team is leading and by how many points. If Oklahoma State wins the second quarter by more than the specified margin—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the respective 'Oklahoma St. wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if UCF secures a second-quarter lead exceeding the designated threshold—also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'UCF wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all markets remain active and resolve according to the actual second-quarter result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets settle at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty and preventing unresolved outcomes due to scheduling disruptions.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction markets are forward-looking and represent probabilities of future events, while sportsbook odds are often influenced by factors like public betting patterns.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second quarter of the UCF vs Oklahoma State football game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result will be sourced from sports data providers and will be used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi. Traders will be able to see the final result and their payouts shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 10, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the UCF or Oklahoma State teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the market. Furthermore, any significant news related to team morale, coaching changes, or unexpected developments in team strategy could all contribute to price movements. Public sentiment and betting activity on sportsbooks may also indirectly affect trading on Kalshi.