TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the potential outcomes of a college football game between UAB and South Florida, focusing specifically on the margin of victory for either team. Each market represents a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the market to settle positively. The collective markets allow participants to assess and bet on various degrees of dominance by either team in the contest.
All markets resolve based on the official final score of the UAB vs South Florida college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For markets where South Florida must win by a specified margin, if South Florida wins by more points than the stated threshold, those markets resolve to Yes; otherwise, they resolve to No. Conversely, for markets where UAB must win by a specified margin, if UAB wins by more points than the stated threshold, those markets resolve to Yes; otherwise, they resolve to No. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these specific contingency conditions.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or sharp action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting volume, while this market allows traders to express their independent beliefs about the game’s outcome. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook odds as new information emerges or as different bettors weigh in. Comparing the two can offer a broader perspective on the likely result of the UAB vs South Florida game, though they aren’t always perfectly aligned.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the UAB vs South Florida game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders participate, the price adjusts based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time forecast. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the likelihood of each possible spread, offering a dynamic assessment of the game’s potential outcome. Traders aim to profit by correctly predicting the final spread.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the UAB vs South Florida game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The platform will then determine which contracts payout based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by those contracts. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 31, 2026. Key injuries to star players on either the UAB or South Florida teams would likely cause significant movement, as would any major changes in coaching strategy or team dynamics. Unexpected news regarding player eligibility or disciplinary actions could also impact the market. Even weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is predicted for the game location, can influence trader sentiment and shift the price. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s assessment of the game’s outcome.