TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 1:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of a college football game between UAB and South Florida. Each market corresponds to a specific margin of victory, allowing participants to bet on whether the winning team will exceed that margin during the initial 30 minutes of play.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the UAB vs South Florida college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. For markets where South Florida is the favored team, resolution occurs if South Florida wins the first half by more than the specified point margin (e.g., over 23.5 points, over 20.5 points, etc.). Conversely, for markets where UAB is the favored team, resolution occurs if UAB wins the first half by more than the specified margin (e.g., over 2.5 points, over 3.5 points, etc.). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the official first-half result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the eventual game outcome.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply how each assesses the probability of various scenarios. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, particularly as new information becomes available or as the event draws closer. Comparing the two can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half of the UAB vs South Florida game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time assessment of the likely outcome. The current top market on Kalshi is for South Florida winning the first half by over 3.5 points.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the first half of the UAB vs South Florida football game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official result, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be the basis for settlement. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 31, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the UAB or South Florida teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the game's style of play, could also move the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could influence trader sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, can also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.