TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 3:30 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether South Florida will win its college football game against UAB. Currently, the probability of South Florida winning on Kalshi is 99.0%, with UAB winning at 1.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the UAB vs South Florida game, as determined by the official result of the match originally scheduled for October 30, 2026, according to the resolution source. Keep a close watch on the game itself, as the market resolves to Yes if UAB wins the game scheduled for October 30, 2026.
The market resolves based on the winner of the UAB vs South Florida college football game scheduled for October 30, 2026. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, the market remains open and resolves according to the final official result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from the mispricing between the two types of markets. Examining both sets of odds provides a more comprehensive view of expectations for the UAB vs South Florida game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the UAB vs South Florida game, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect a collective assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe South Florida will win, the price of contracts predicting that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market is constantly updating its predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the UAB vs South Florida game, as officially reported by a trusted sports data source, will determine the winning contract. The resolution process is designed to be objective and transparent, ensuring that the market accurately reflects the real-world outcome of the game. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand when and how this market will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Key injuries to star players on either the UAB or South Florida team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected coaching changes, significant weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or even major news regarding team morale could also influence trader behavior. Public perception, as reflected in polls and analyst predictions, can also play a role, though this market relies on traders’ individual assessments rather than solely following external opinions. Any development that alters the perceived probability of either team winning has the potential to move the market.