TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 10:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Tulsa and Sacramento Republic, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential scenarios in the Tulsa versus Sacramento Republic USL Championship game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Resolution is determined solely by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. Four distinct outcome thresholds are defined: Tulsa winning by more than 2.5 goals, Tulsa winning by more than 1.5 goals, Sacramento Republic winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Sacramento Republic winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each threshold represents a separate market that resolves positively if the actual score meets or exceeds its specified margin in favor of the relevant team. The governing rules emphasize that all determinations exclude post-regulation periods, focusing exclusively on regular-time results.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a broader range of information and participant perspectives than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd. If sportsbook odds significantly differ from those found on Kalshi, it may indicate disagreement about the likely outcome or differing interpretations of available information. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and generate a forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread in the Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic match will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports organization, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders will be able to see the final settlement details on Kalshi following the event’s conclusion.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or weather conditions impacting the game could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or coaching decisions could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi can quickly alter the odds, especially if they represent informed bets based on new information. Monitoring these signals can provide insight into potential shifts in market expectations.