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$154.3b
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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
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VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 3:21 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the total number of 4th down conversions in the Tulane vs. Army college football game will be over or under 0.5. Currently, Polymarket gives a 100.0% probability to “Tulane vs. Army: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5”. Resolution will be based on data reported at https://www.ncaa.com/. Keep a close watch on the game itself, scheduled for October 10 at 12:00PM ET, as the final count of 4th down conversions will determine the outcome of this market.
In the upcoming college football game between Tulane and Army, scheduled for October 10 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Tulane" if Tulane win the game. This market will resolve to "Army" if Army win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome of the Tulane vs. Army game. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants on Polymarket and can fluctuate significantly based on new information or shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Tulane vs. Army game as officially reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against these sources to determine which outcome is the winner and distribute payouts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game result to understand when the market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 10, 2026. News about key player injuries on either the Tulane or Army teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in coaching strategies, weather forecasts for the game location, or even unexpected team performance in preceding games could all shift trader sentiment. Major upsets in other college football games could also indirectly affect this market, as they might influence overall perceptions of team strength and conference standings. Any significant event impacting the perceived probability of either team winning could cause price movement.