TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first half of an upcoming college football game. Bettors can choose from various thresholds to speculate on whether one team will dominate the other by a specific margin before halftime.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the first half of the Tulane vs Army college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold, with 'Yes' resolving if the winning team exceeds that margin. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, betting continues and resolves normally. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve at a fair price, reflecting the uncertainty and ensuring balanced outcomes for participants.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows participants to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the event. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that spread occurring in the first half of the Tulane vs Army game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that spread will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual point spread of the first half of the Tulane vs Army game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will determine which contracts payout based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. The final price will reflect the probability assigned to each outcome leading up to the game's completion.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Tulane or Army teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could also shift the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, causing the price to adjust accordingly.