TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 1:36 PM EST
Polymarket
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the second half of a Bundesliga match between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV. Participants are predicting which team will score more goals in the second half, or if the result will be a draw. The markets specifically exclude first-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs.
In the upcoming Bundesliga game between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "TSG 1899 Hoffenheim" if TSG 1899 Hoffenheim score more goals than Hamburger SV in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Hamburger SV" if Hamburger SV score more goals than TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming Bundesliga game between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV, scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve to "TSG 1899 Hoffenheim" if TSG 1899 Hoffenheim score more goals than Hamburger SV in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Hamburger SV" if Hamburger SV score more goals than TSG 1899 Hoffenheim in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Predict, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when public sentiment strongly deviates from expert analysis. Examining both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds for this market can provide a more nuanced understanding of the potential outcomes and relative probabilities.
Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Predict may differ due to variations in user base, trading volume, and market-specific rules. Polymarket currently favors TSG 1899 Hoffenheim to win the second half at 62%, while Predict leans toward a draw. These differences can arise from varying levels of information available to traders on each platform, or simply differing risk appetites. Furthermore, the liquidity and volume on each platform can influence price discovery, leading to temporary discrepancies until arbitrage opportunities are exploited.