TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 4:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Troyes and Marseille. The result is determined by the final score after the regular 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will resolve based on whether Troyes, Marseille, or neither (a tie) wins the match as scheduled.
The event resolves based on the result of the Troyes vs Marseille professional Ligue 1 soccer match originally scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. If Troyes wins, the 'Troyes' market resolves to Yes; if Marseille wins, the 'Marseille' market resolves to Yes; and if the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the platform's rules. The event specifically covers the outcome of the match as it concludes within regular time, with no consideration given to results determined through extra time or penalty shootouts.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, it could indicate that the market believes the sportsbook’s odds are mispriced. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities based on different methodologies and information sets, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Troyes vs Marseille match. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the event’s potential results. The market’s depth and volume indicate the level of confidence traders have in their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Troyes vs Marseille match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The platform will then verify the result and settle all outstanding contracts accordingly. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the Troyes vs Marseille match takes place. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or tactical approaches could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate a shift in expectations, prompting others to adjust their positions and move the market.