TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 7:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on the margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Trinidad and Tobago and Curacao. Each market specifies different goal-differential thresholds that determine the outcome based on which team wins and by how many goals. The resolution depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The markets resolve based on the goal differential by which either Trinidad and Tobago or Curacao wins the specified professional CONCACAF Nations League soccer match originally scheduled for October 4, 2026. All outcomes are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty shootouts. A win by Trinidad and Tobago exceeding 2.5 goals resolves the first market to 'Yes,' while a win exceeding 1.5 goals resolves the second market to 'Yes.' Conversely, a Curacao win exceeding 1.5 goals resolves the third market to 'Yes,' and a win exceeding 2.5 goals resolves the fourth market to 'Yes.' All markets share the same secondary disclaimer stating that Kalshi is not affiliated with CONCACAF, and that all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and the expertise of oddsmakers, while this market is driven by individuals actively trading based on their own research and insights. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or interpretations of the factors influencing the Trinidad and Tobago vs Curacao match, such as team form, injuries, and historical performance. It’s useful to compare both to gain a broader perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability of that outcome as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe Curacao will win by more than 1.5 goals, for example, the price of that contract will increase. Conversely, increased trading activity suggesting a closer match will lower its price. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to provide a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Trinidad and Tobago vs Curacao match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, specifically the point spread. The platform will verify the result against official sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual spread achieved during the match. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Trinidad and Tobago or Curacao would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, such as unexpected wins or losses in preceding matches, could also shift market sentiment. Even weather forecasts predicting adverse conditions during the match could impact trading activity. Furthermore, any public statements from team coaches or players offering insights into their strategy or lineup could introduce new information and affect the market price.