TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional Serie C soccer match between Treviso FBC and Ospitaletto. The result will be determined based on the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time. Markets will reflect whether either team wins outright or if the game ends in a tie.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Treviso FBC vs Ospitaletto professional Serie C soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time but excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. Three distinct outcomes are possible: a win for Treviso FBC, a win for Ospitaletto, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within regular time and stoppage, the corresponding market will resolve to Yes. Should the game end level after the same duration, the Tie market will resolve to Yes. In the event the match is cancelled or postponed by more than 48 hours from its original schedule, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform rules.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, which can differ from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set odds to maximize profit, factoring in margins and perceived public biases. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. While sportsbooks may initially have different probabilities, prediction markets can sometimes converge on more accurate predictions as more information becomes available and traders adjust their positions based on new developments. It's a fascinating comparison of different forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, and traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit from correctly anticipating the event’s outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Treviso FBC versus Ospitaletto match. The platform will verify the result against established sports data sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who held contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those who bet on the incorrect outcome will forfeit their investment. The exact timing of resolution may depend on the speed of official result reporting.
Several factors could influence this market before Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly shift the odds. Additionally, performance in recent matches, coaching decisions, and even public sentiment expressed through media coverage can all play a role. Major upsets in other related matches or significant shifts in betting patterns on sportsbooks could also impact trader behavior and cause price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these signals can provide insights into potential market movements.