TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on the outcome of a soccer match between Treffers Groesbeek and Heracles Almelo in the first round of the KNVB tournament. It reflects which team progresses following their head-to-head contest. The result depends entirely on the performance of both teams during the match.
The event involves two distinct outcomes: one where Treffers Groesbeek advances past Heracles Almelo, and another where Heracles Almelo advances past Treffers Groesbeek, each resolving the respective market to Yes. The market resolution is strictly based on the result of the soccer tie in the 1st Round of the KNVB. Secondary rules clarify that any references to FIFA or the FIFA World Cup are purely descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation with FIFA or Kalshi. The outcome is determined solely by which team progresses from the match, with no additional conditions or tiebreakers specified beyond the primary advancement criteria.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by betting on both venues. It’s common to see prediction markets move more efficiently in response to new information than traditional betting markets, as they are driven by continuous trading activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market price is determined by the highest bid and lowest ask, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event's potential results. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, influencing the overall market price.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Treffers Groesbeek versus Heracles Almelo match, as determined by the governing sporting body. The final outcome will be verified against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 29, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or tactical changes could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day could also play a role, potentially favoring one team over the other. Furthermore, major upsets in related matches or changes in public perception of team strengths could all contribute to price movements. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities.