TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 1:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two soccer teams in an upcoming match, focusing on the margin of victory. It evaluates different thresholds for how many goals one team might win by over the other. The outcome depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various goal-differential scenarios for the Tractor Tabriz vs Neftchi professional AFC Champions League soccer match scheduled for November 2, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty kicks are excluded. Four distinct outcome conditions are considered: Tractor Tabriz winning by more than 2.5 goals, Tractor Tabriz winning by more than 1.5 goals, Neftchi winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Neftchi winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each condition independently determines a 'Yes' resolution if met, with all markets unaffected by league affiliations or trademark ownership claims from Kalshi.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market relies on individuals directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. It is common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when there's considerable uncertainty surrounding the Tractor Tabriz vs Neftchi match. Examining these differences can reveal valuable insights into market perceptions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers post bids and asks, and trades occur when there’s a matching price. The price represents the probability of a particular outcome – in this case, the spread in the Tractor Tabriz vs Neftchi match. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability, reflecting the collective intelligence of the crowd.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the Tractor Tabriz vs Neftchi match as reported by official sources. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in this market. It’s important to monitor official results following the match to understand how the market settles and ensure accurate payouts for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations and impact trading activity. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the Tractor Tabriz vs Neftchi match could also contribute to price movements. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi itself can create momentum and influence the overall market price, reflecting a change in collective sentiment.