TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 6:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively one team will win over the other. The outcomes depend on the point difference at the end of the match, with various thresholds defining different market resolutions.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the Towson vs Campbell college football game scheduled for October 17, 2026. If Campbell wins by exceeding specific point margins—from 3.5 to 35.5 points—respective 'Yes' outcomes trigger. Conversely, if Towson wins by more than 1.5 to 12.5 points, corresponding 'Yes' outcomes also apply. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original time, all markets remain active and resolve per the final result. If the game fails to start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the game's ultimate status.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals. It's common to see initial discrepancies, but as the event approaches, the odds on Kalshi often converge with those offered by sportsbooks, though differences can persist due to varying market dynamics and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different spread outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The market depth, represented by the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points, indicates the strength of conviction behind different outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Towson vs Campbell game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of college football. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Towson or Campbell teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in coaching strategies or team performance in preceding games could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions predicted for game day, or even significant shifts in public perception based on media coverage, could also contribute to price fluctuations. Any information that alters the perceived probability of a specific spread outcome has the potential to move this market.