TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Toulouse and Troyes. The result is determined by the final score after the standard 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time, without considering extra time or penalty shootouts. Markets will reflect whether Toulouse wins, Troyes wins, or the game ends in a tie.
The event resolves based on the result of the Toulouse vs Troyes professional Ligue 1 soccer match originally scheduled for October 24, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A 'Yes' outcome for Toulouse occurs if Toulouse wins the match within regular time. Similarly, a 'Yes' outcome for Troyes occurs if Troyes wins the match within regular time. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The event exclusively considers the result after normal time and does not account for extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market allows individuals to express their own predictions, which can lead to odds that diverge from sportsbook offerings, especially as new information emerges. It’s common to see differences in probabilities, particularly for outcomes considered less likely by the general public.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Toulouse vs Troyes match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the event's outcome and capitalizing on discrepancies between their beliefs and the market price. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher its price will climb.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Toulouse vs Troyes match, as determined by the governing sporting body. Any potential postponements or cancellations will be factored into the resolution process, ensuring a fair and accurate outcome for all participants in this market. The final result will be used to determine which contracts pay out.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. News regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Toulouse or Troyes would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions leading up to the match could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements related to team management or key personnel could also move the market. Any significant public opinion shifts, reflected in sports news and analysis, have the potential to affect trading activity in this market.