TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Toulouse wins by more than 2.5 goals
- Kalshi
Toulouse wins by more than 2.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 04d:00h:01m
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This event tracks the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Toulouse and Strasbourg Alsace, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined based on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates different winning margins for Toulouse or Strasbourg Alsace in their scheduled Ligue 1 match. Four distinct conditions define resolution: Toulouse winning by more than 2.5 goals, Toulouse winning by more than 1.5 goals, Strasbourg Alsace winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Strasbourg Alsace winning by more than 2.5 goals. All assessments occur after the standard 90 minutes plus any added stoppage time, with outcomes based solely on regular-time scoring and not including extra time or penalty shootouts. The governing body’s official result determines resolution, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any formal association with the league or its intellectual property.
Prediction market odds often differ from sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources of participants. Sportsbooks primarily aim to set lines that balance betting action and ensure profitability, while prediction market participants are incentivized to express their true beliefs about the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets incorporating a wider range of information, including factors not typically considered by sportsbooks. It’s common to see this market reflect different probabilities than those offered by traditional sports betting outlets, potentially offering value for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among participants regarding the likely result of the Toulouse vs Strasbourg match.
This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Toulouse vs Strasbourg match, specifically the spread as determined by official match statistics. The official result will be used to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process for all participants in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Toulouse or Strasbourg could shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions on match day can also influence trading activity. Unexpected announcements related to player availability, coaching changes, or other factors impacting team performance are likely to cause price fluctuations in this market, as traders react to the new information.