TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$181,481,432
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,827,991,073
405,996
Markets across
40,551
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,368
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 9:41 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming NHL game between Toronto and Vancouver. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond the losing team, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The resolution depends entirely on the official game result, accounting for possible scheduling changes.
All markets resolve based on the official result of the Toronto vs Vancouver NHL game scheduled for October 31, 2026, with specific win-margin thresholds determining resolution. If Vancouver wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Toronto wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. For scheduling changes, if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, all markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, aiming to reflect the true probability of the outcome. While sportsbooks may initially set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge. It's common to see differences, particularly as the event draws closer and more trading activity occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the true probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are influenced by various factors, including news, injuries, and overall sentiment surrounding the teams. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price fluctuations.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread of the game between Toronto and Vancouver, as officially recorded by sports data providers. The final score difference will be compared to the spread offered in this market to determine winning and losing contracts. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the official results are available.
Several signals could significantly influence this market. Any major news regarding player injuries or changes in team lineups would likely cause price adjustments. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team performance could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, shifts in public sentiment, reflected in media coverage and expert analysis, can influence how traders position themselves. Finally, any significant developments related to the overall competitive landscape of the league could move the market as traders reassess the probabilities of different outcomes.