TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 14, 9:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Orlando will win its professional MLS soccer game against Toronto. Currently, Kalshi gives Orlando a 77.0% probability of winning, while a tie is priced at 20.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game originally scheduled for October 14, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the final whistle of the match on October 14, 2026, as that will determine the resolution of this market.
The event resolves based on the result of the Toronto versus Orlando professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 14, 2026, after the full 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, with extra time and penalty shootouts excluded from consideration. Three distinct markets correspond to possible outcomes: Toronto win, Orlando win, or a tie. If the match concludes with either team securing a victory within regulation plus stoppage time, the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game end in a tie under the same conditions, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' In the event the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined per the platform’s guidelines. The markets are independent of any league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on a variety of factors, including expert analysis and attempts to balance action on both sides. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of each venue. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed forecasting.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a margin system, and traders must deposit collateral to cover potential losses, ensuring the market remains solvent and functioning efficiently. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the event's likely outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Toronto vs Orlando match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor news sources and official announcements as the event approaches to stay informed about any potential factors that could influence the resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or unexpected coaching decisions could impact trader sentiment and shift the odds. Furthermore, performance in preceding matches, weather conditions, and even public opinion expressed through polls or social media could all contribute to price fluctuations. Monitoring these factors and assessing their potential impact on the Toronto vs Orlando match is crucial for making informed trading decisions in this market.