TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 28, 9:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an MLS soccer match between Toronto and DC United, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It considers different thresholds for goal differences to determine the result. The match result is evaluated after the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks.
The event evaluates the goal differential by which either Toronto or DC United wins the match scheduled for October 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty kicks. Four distinct outcomes are possible: Toronto winning by more than 2.5 goals, Toronto winning by more than 1.5 goals, DC United winning by more than 1.5 goals, or DC United winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome corresponds to a separate market resolving to 'Yes' if the specified condition is met. The rules clarify that Kalshi, the platform hosting this event, holds no official affiliation with the MLS or its governing bodies, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant amount of money flows towards one outcome, the price will shift to reflect that collective view, potentially providing a more accurate assessment of the true probability than traditional odds. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a lot of trading occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Toronto vs DC United match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the league organizers. The platform will then verify the result against these sources to determine which contracts will pay out and at what value. All trading will cease once the event concludes and the official results are available.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Toronto or DC United would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather forecasts could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about coaching changes or major team news could also shift the market. Ultimately, any information that alters perceptions of the teams’ relative strengths will likely be reflected in the price.