TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Torino will win its Serie A soccer match against Monza. Currently, Kalshi gives Torino a 99.0% probability of winning, with Monza at 1.0%. The market resolves based on the outcome of the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result of the Torino vs Monza professional Serie A soccer game, according to the resolution source. Keep an eye on the kickoff of the match on October 23, 2026, as that marks the beginning of the event window for determining the winner.
The event resolves based on the full-time result of the Torino vs Monza professional Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 23, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Torino wins, the 'Torino' market resolves to Yes. If Monza wins, the 'Monza' market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform. The markets exclusively consider the result within regular time and do not account for extra time or penalty shootouts. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with Lega Serie A or the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, reflecting their profit margin. This market, however, is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders, theoretically resulting in more accurate probabilities. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts as new information and opinions emerge, potentially diverging from sportsbook lines as the event approaches. It's a fascinating comparison to see how crowd wisdom stacks up against professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a decentralized mechanism, meaning the price is determined solely by supply and demand from participants, not by a central authority setting the odds. This creates a dynamic and responsive market that can quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the result will be determined by the official result of the Torino vs Monza match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out according to the final market price at resolution, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 23, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Torino or Monza would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match tactical announcements from the managers, could introduce new information and cause price fluctuations. Major upsets in other Serie A matches that affect the league standings could also indirectly influence this market.