TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 5:53 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 13 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the upcoming NPB game, scheduled for August 13 at 5:00AM ET: If the Tokyo Yakult Swallows win, the market will resolve to "Tokyo Yakult Swallows". If the Hiroshima Carp win, the market will resolve to "Hiroshima Carp". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the NPB. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the aggregate belief of informed traders willing to put their capital at risk. As a result, prediction markets often provide more accurate forecasts, especially when considering the volume traded. However, sportsbook odds can still be a useful data point for comparison, offering a contrasting perspective on the potential outcomes of the championship.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its shares will climb. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence regarding the championship's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the NPB championship series, as declared by the Nippon Professional Baseball organization. The winning team will determine the outcome of the market, and all shares associated with the losing teams will be worth $0. The timing of the resolution is dependent on the official announcement of the championship winner.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Key player injuries or unexpected changes in team performance would likely cause shifts in the odds. Major announcements regarding team strategies or managerial decisions could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, any significant news related to the overall health of the league or unforeseen circumstances affecting the championship series could lead to substantial movements in the market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding how the probabilities evolve as the championship approaches.