TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Titled Tuesday Winner: October 13
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Titled Tuesday?

Volume:
$8,644

Fabiano Caruana

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 2:16 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Fabiano Caruana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,043
N/A
N/A
$1,043
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Fabiano Caruana

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hikaru Nakamura

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,238
N/A
N/A
$2,857
Settled
No
polymarket

Hikaru Nakamura

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sina Movahed

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$644
N/A
N/A
$607
Settled
No
polymarket

Sina Movahed

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$182
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Magnus Carlsen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$617
N/A
N/A
$617
Settled
No
polymarket

Magnus Carlsen

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Alireza Firouzja

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$534
N/A
N/A
$510
Settled
No
polymarket

Alireza Firouzja

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Hans Niemann

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
polymarket

Hans Niemann

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ian Nepomniachtchi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
$380
Settled
No
polymarket

Ian Nepomniachtchi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jose Martinez

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$332
N/A
N/A
$332
Settled
No
polymarket

Jose Martinez

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Denis Lazavik

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$316
N/A
N/A
$316
Settled
No
polymarket

Denis Lazavik

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Arjun Erigaisi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$267
N/A
N/A
$267
Settled
No
polymarket

Arjun Erigaisi

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wesley So

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$203
N/A
N/A
$203
Settled
No
polymarket

Wesley So

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Artem Avanesian

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166
N/A
N/A
$166
Settled
No
kalshi

Nihal Sarin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$60
Settled
No
polymarket

Nihal Sarin

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 146

Description

This event group concerns the winner of the Titled Tuesday weekly blitz chess tournament held on October 13, 2026. Multiple markets exist, each tied to a specific player potentially winning the tournament.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi creates a market for each potential winner, while Polymarket only has markets for a select few. This creates redundancy and potential for conflicting information.Hero tip: Focus on the overall probability distribution implied by all Kalshi markets for a given player, rather than relying on individual market prices. Be prepared for many Kalshi markets to resolve to 'No' if a single player wins.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if the listed player wins. If multiple players tie for first, the player whose name comes first alphabetically wins. Limited number of players covered.
  • Kalshi: Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the listed player wins. A very large number of players are covered with individual markets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the winner of Titled Tuesday on October 13, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If the listed player does not play their corresponding market will resolve to "No". If this tournament is postponed after October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Chess.com (https://www.chess.com/events/info/2026-titled-tuesday-blitz); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to an individual player's potential victory in the Titled Tuesday weekly chess competition scheduled for October 13, 2026. The event follows a blitz format and consists of 11 rounds in a Swiss tournament structure. A market resolves to 'Yes' only if the specified player both participates and wins the competition outright. If the named player does not participate, their respective market automatically resolves to 'No', regardless of the actual tournament winner. The competition's governing body and official rules are separate from the organizing platform, which disclaims any formal affiliation with the league or its trademarks.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the probability of various players winning the Titled Tuesday competition on October 13. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $8,644, with $5,611 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a consensus view on who is most likely to emerge victorious, though individual platform probabilities can vary. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market’s expectations for the Titled Tuesday winner, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders on both venues. This provides a unique perspective on the event’s potential outcome.

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the mechanisms behind price discovery. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. In contrast, this market’s odds are driven by supply and demand – traders buy and sell contracts based on their beliefs, leading to a more dynamic and potentially more accurate reflection of true probabilities. While sportsbooks may be influenced by public perception, prediction markets aggregate a wider range of informed opinions, potentially offering a different perspective on the likely winner.