TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder
Volume:
$8,258,908
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder scheduled for March 15, 2025 at 1:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, totals, player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half variants across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical tautology (both outcomes resolve to Yes), rendering it fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets are well-formed with clear, mutually exclusive resolution paths.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market—it is logically broken. Trade only Polymarket markets. For all markets, resolution is determined by the final official NBA box score on NBA.com, including all overtime periods. If the game is postponed, markets remain open until completion. If canceled with no makeup, all markets resolve 50-50.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: All 132 markets feature clear, mutually exclusive resolution criteria. Moneyline resolves to Timberwolves or Thunder based on final score. Spreads resolve based on margin thresholds (e.g., Thunder -8.5 requires 9+ point win). Totals resolve Over/Under based on combined points. Player props resolve Yes/No based on individual stat thresholds. All specify overtime inclusion, postponement (remain open), and cancellation (50-50). Source: Official NBA.com box score.
- Kalshi: Single market states: 'If Minnesota wins...resolve Yes. If Oklahoma City wins...resolve Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes map to the same resolution (Yes), making the market a tautology. The market is unresolvable because there is no outcome that resolves to No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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