TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Timberwolves vs. Celtics
Volume:
$15,828,531
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 22 at 8:00PM ET: If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to "Timberwolves". If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Celtics". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if Boston wins AND also resolves YES if Minnesota wins, creating an outcome where both teams winning produces the same result. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a standard moneyline with mutually exclusive outcomes (Timberwolves, Celtics, or 50-50 on cancellation).Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi moneyline market for this game. The resolution logic is broken and will create disputes regardless of outcome. Trade only on Polymarket, which has standard, unambiguous moneyline resolution. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification or exit before game time.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's moneyline market contains a critical logical error. The rules state 'If Boston wins the Minnesota at Boston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Minnesota wins the Minnesota at Boston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes (Boston win or Minnesota win) resolve to YES, leaving no outcome path for a NO resolution and making the market logically incoherent.
- Polymarket: Aligned with standard sports betting logic: Polymarket structures the moneyline as a mutually exclusive three-way outcome: 'If the Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to Timberwolves. If the Celtics win, the market will resolve to Celtics. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.' This is the correct, unambiguous resolution framework.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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