TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Over 0.5 goals scored
- Kalshi
Over 0.5 goals scored - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:15h:46m
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This event tracks the total number of goals scored in an upcoming soccer match between Thun and Heart of Midlothian. The outcome depends on whether the combined goals exceed specific thresholds. It reflects the anticipated offensive performance of both teams within the standard match duration.
The event resolves based on whether the total goals scored by both teams in the Thun vs Heart of Midlothian professional Conference League soccer match, originally scheduled for November 5, 2026, exceed specified thresholds. The match duration considered is 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If the total goals exceed any of the thresholds (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5), the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, each corresponding to a different goal threshold, and the resolution is strictly based on the official match result as defined by the governing league. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a more accurate forecast of event outcomes compared to traditional sportsbook odds. This is because prediction markets aggregate the knowledge and insights of a diverse group of participants, incentivized to make correct predictions. While sportsbooks may incorporate biases or limitations in their modeling, this market benefits from the 'wisdom of the crowd'. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for understanding public perception and identifying potential discrepancies in expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular goal total is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top market on Kalshi is for whether over 3.5 goals will be scored, currently trading at a chance percentage of 98.0%.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final goal tally of the Thun vs Heart of Midlothian match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing football authority. Any potential extra time or penalty shootouts will be considered only if they are part of the official match rules for determining a winner or total goals for the purpose of the market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Late team news, such as key player injuries or suspensions for either Thun or Heart of Midlothian, would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play or scoring opportunities, could also affect the market. Finally, any pre-match analysis or expert predictions suggesting a high or low-scoring game could sway traders' opinions and shift the odds in this market.