TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Thun wins by more than 1.5 goals
- Kalshi
Thun wins by more than 1.5 goals - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 5, 2026
Time left: 02d:16h:16m
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This set of markets tracks the margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Thun and Heart of Midlothian. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold by which either team must win to settle the outcome. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential in the Thun vs Heart of Midlothian Conference League match scheduled for November 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Each market has a distinct threshold for victory: Thun must win by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, while Heart of Midlothian must win by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals for the respective markets to resolve as 'Yes.' If neither team meets their specified margin, all markets resolve as 'No.' Extra time and penalty shootouts do not count toward the resolution. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be insightful, but remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy. Comparing these probabilities can highlight where the crowd differs from professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the spread. The price of a contract reflects the market's probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price fluctuations. The current price is determined by the forces of supply and demand, with buyers and sellers negotiating to reach mutually agreeable terms. This creates a real-time assessment of the likely result of the Thun vs Heart of Midlothian match.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread in the Thun vs Heart of Midlothian match, as determined by official match results. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will be paid out according to the contract terms at the time of their trade. The final score difference will be the deciding factor for determining the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 5, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team formations, or unexpected weather conditions could significantly impact trader sentiment. Major upsets in other matches involving these teams could also shift expectations. Furthermore, public announcements about team strategy or coaching decisions might lead to adjustments in the market. Overall team performance in recent games, and any pre-match analysis from sports commentators, can all contribute to price movements in this market.