TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:53 AM EST
Kalshi
Two esports teams engage in a competitive gaming match where success on the first map decides the early momentum. The official result reflects which team's strategy and execution prevail across the map's objectives.
Markets resolve based on which team wins the specified map in the scheduled match. If the match or map is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, markets resolve to a fair price. If a map begins and is later forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, leading to a potentially more accurate forecast. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Comparing these odds can offer valuable insights into differing perspectives on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the crowd. The more a particular outcome is traded, the more its price will move, indicating changing expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Warriors vs. Yellow Submarine match, as reported by a trusted and widely recognized source. The platform will verify the result and settle all outstanding contracts accordingly. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, ensuring they are aware of the final result and its implications for their positions.
Several factors could influence trading activity and move this market before resolution. Any news regarding team performance, player injuries, or strategic changes could significantly impact the perceived probabilities. Unexpected announcements, such as changes in venue or scheduling, could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants or significant media coverage could drive price fluctuations. Monitoring these signals and events will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of this market.