TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 11:52 AM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on a competitive Dota 2 match between The Warriors and Yellow Submarine, scheduled for October 16, 2026. The outcome hinges on which team secures a victory in their respective qualifying match prior to the main event. If either team wins their designated qualifier, the market resolves positively.
The event resolves based on the outcomes of two qualifying matches preceding the main Dota 2 match between The Warriors and Yellow Submarine. If The Warriors win the EPL Masters Play-In 2026, the market resolves to Yes for The Warriors. Conversely, if Yellow Submarine wins the same play-in tournament, the market resolves to Yes for Yellow Submarine. If the main match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, or forfeited before play begins, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match starts but is later forfeited, the result follows the official outcome declared by the governing body or tournament organizer. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by factors like house bias or initial public perception. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sets or analytical approaches. It's common to see prediction markets move more efficiently as new information becomes available, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the true probabilities than traditional betting venues. Examining these differences can be a valuable exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of expectations. The current price indicates what a trader would need to pay to hold a contract that pays out if the corresponding outcome is realized. This mechanism incentivizes traders to reveal their information and converge on a fair price, reflecting the overall sentiment surrounding the Warriors vs. Yellow Submarine match.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Warriors vs. Yellow Submarine match as reported by a widely recognized sports data provider. The specific outcome that triggers payout will align with the market’s defined options, representing the final result of the game. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the event has concluded and the results have been officially verified.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 16, 2026. Key player injuries or unexpected lineup changes for either the Warriors or the Yellow Submarine would likely cause significant movement. News regarding team morale, coaching decisions, or even weather conditions (if applicable) could also impact trader sentiment. Major shifts in public opinion, as reflected in sports news and analysis, can also drive price changes. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning has the potential to move this market substantially.