TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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The Progress Group 250 Winner
kalshi

Who will win the Progress Group 250?

Volume:
$536,523

Sammy Smith

 - Kalshi

Sammy Smith - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 24, 2026

Closed: Oct 24, 8:49 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Sammy Smith

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,219
N/A
N/A
$31,215
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Carson Kvapil

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$45,998
N/A
N/A
$35,822
Settled
No
kalshi

Sam Mayer

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$43,170
N/A
N/A
$38,526
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin Hill

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$37,717
N/A
N/A
$29,188
Settled
No
kalshi

Justin Allgaier

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$35,206
N/A
N/A
$32,188
Settled
No
kalshi

Corey Day

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,277
N/A
N/A
$28,409
Settled
No
kalshi

Rajah Caruth

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,122
N/A
N/A
$27,403
Settled
No
kalshi

Sheldon Creed

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,808
N/A
N/A
$24,996
Settled
No
kalshi

Parker Retzlaff

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,937
N/A
N/A
$18,956
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeb Burton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,698
N/A
N/A
$21,226
Settled
No
kalshi

Brandon Jones

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,524
N/A
N/A
$20,309
Settled
No
kalshi

Taylor Gray

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,714
N/A
N/A
$12,992
Settled
No
kalshi

Jesse Love

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,811
N/A
N/A
$18,355
Settled
No
kalshi

Anthony Alfredo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,764
N/A
N/A
$15,586
Settled
No
kalshi

Brennan Poole

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,845
N/A
N/A
$13,728
Settled
No
kalshi

William Sawalich

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,854
N/A
N/A
$12,719
Settled
No
kalshi

Blaine Perkins

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,515
N/A
N/A
$11,855
Settled
No
kalshi

Brent Crews

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,172
N/A
N/A
$11,655
Settled
No
kalshi

Jake Finch

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,117
N/A
N/A
$10,030
Settled
No
kalshi

Jeremy Clements

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,941
N/A
N/A
$9,597
Settled
No
kalshi

Harrison Burton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,107
N/A
N/A
$9,088
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Sieg

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,762
N/A
N/A
$8,742
Settled
No
kalshi

Connor Mosack

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,498
N/A
N/A
$6,798
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Williams

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,500
N/A
N/A
$5,440
Settled
No
kalshi

Leland Honeyman Jr

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,223
N/A
N/A
$3,223
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event tracks the outcome of a NASCAR race where various drivers compete to achieve the top position. The resolution depends solely on which driver claims the victory in the main race, with specific conditions applied to ensure fairness and accuracy in the result determination.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the official results of the 2026 The Progress Group 250 NASCAR race scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific driver, resolving to 'Yes' if that driver finishes first in the main race and 'No' otherwise. If a driver retires, is disqualified, or is not classified as a finisher, their respective market resolves to 'No.' Should the race be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official results. If the race is canceled or fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price. Official race results are determined and published by NASCAR, and determinations are strictly based on these final, official outcomes—not provisional or interim results. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Progress Group 250 market tracks the current price of contracts representing each possible outcome, the 24-hour trading volume of $443,806, and the total volume traded to date of $535,198. You can also view a price history chart to see how the market has moved over time. This allows traders to assess sentiment and potential opportunities within this market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how participants are evaluating the likelihood of different results in the Progress Group 250.

Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than sportsbook odds, which are typically set by a smaller team of professionals. While sportsbooks consider factors like team statistics and expert analysis, this market incorporates a broader range of information and individual insights. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of an event occurring.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing expectations, providing a real-time assessment of probabilities. Trading volume and order flow influence price discovery in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the Progress Group 250 is verified against credible public reporting. The official results from the event organizers will be used to determine the winning contract. Traders who correctly predicted the winner will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It's important to monitor the event schedule and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed.

Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Unexpected performance by a key competitor, injuries to prominent players, or significant changes in team strategy could all shift trader sentiment. Major news announcements related to the event, such as changes in the event schedule or venue, could also have an impact. Public opinion and media coverage can also play a role, as they can influence how traders perceive the probabilities of different outcomes. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market.