TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 6:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to speculate on the margin of victory in an upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a different point spread threshold, enabling traders to assess the likelihood of various outcome ranges. The resolution depends solely on the official game result, with specific handling for postponements.
All markets resolve based on the official point differential from the The Citadel vs South Carolina St. college football game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026. If South Carolina St. wins by exceeding the specified point margin defined in each market (ranging from 2.5 to 42.5 points), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. If The Citadel wins, only the two markets specifically structured for The Citadel's victory (by over 1.5 or 5.5 points) will resolve to Yes if the conditions are met. For any game postponement, if the rescheduled match begins within 48 hours of the original date, all markets remain active and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not commence within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, the prediction market price will move to reflect that collective view. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news or events impact perceptions of the game's likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are essentially betting on the probability of the final point spread falling within a specific range. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards what is believed to be the true probability of the outcome, making it a dynamic and informative indicator of expectations for the game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Citadel vs South Carolina St. game, as reported by a major sports data provider, will determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the official result of the game, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or address any losing positions.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either the Citadel or South Carolina St. would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game’s style of play, could also shift the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or unexpected lineup changes could all contribute to fluctuations in the price of contracts for this market. Public sentiment and betting trends can also play a role.