TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 3:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Cincinnati will win their college football game against Texas Tech by more than 2.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives a 99.0% probability to Cincinnati winning by over 2.5 points, with resolution determined by the final score of the Texas Tech vs Cincinnati game originally scheduled for October 24, 2026. Participants should closely watch the outcome of the game itself on October 24, 2026, as the final score will definitively resolve this market.
All markets resolve based on the official final result of the Texas Tech vs Cincinnati college football game scheduled for October 24, 2026. For Texas Tech markets, resolution occurs if Texas Tech wins by exceeding the specified point margin (ranging from 1.5 to 30.5 points). For Cincinnati markets, resolution occurs if Cincinnati wins by exceeding the specified point margin (ranging from 1.5 to 13.5 points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under unforeseen circumstances.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. It’s common to see initial discrepancies between the two, as sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting biases or promotional offers. Over time, this market tends to converge towards what many believe is the 'true' probability of the outcome, making it a valuable data point alongside sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more contracts bought for a specific spread, the higher the price moves, indicating greater confidence in that outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Texas Tech vs Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result announced by the governing body of college football. The final point spread will be compared to the contracts traded on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out, and at what value. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Texas Tech or Cincinnati teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in coaching strategies or unexpected weather forecasts could also shift expectations. Public sentiment, reflected in betting trends and media coverage, can also play a role. Finally, any significant updates related to team performance or player availability leading up to the game on Oct 24, 2026 could cause the market to react and adjust its pricing.